Post by boston on Feb 16, 2024 21:35:16 GMT -5
Welcome to the inaugural Tiger Rankings for NPD 3.0! These are my power rankings and will serve as my official predictions for our final standings this year. We’re approaching Round 80 at the time of this writing, so when it comes to everyone’s 26-man rosters, what you see is just about what you’re going to get.
These rankings are only for 2024. They only account for players which have previously debuted in MLB, unless they’re a super prospect and they are basically guaranteed to see significant playing time in MLB this year (i.e. Holliday and Chourio).
Most of the final record predictions here are based a model I wrote for this league which takes our scoring into account. However, I’ve adjusted most team’s records, especially the outliers, to more realistic predictions.
At the end of the day, this is all subjective, so sorry if your team isn’t where you thought it’d be on this kind of a list. Best of luck to all this year!
30. Colorado Rockies
I had considered the possibility that one of the “lower cap” teams would do this for the meme- draft Ohtani and nothing else but prospects- but was surprised when it actually happened, and how quickly it did. After taking Junior Caminero, Colorado drafted the most talented baseball player in decades to anchor a talented, but young, roster.
It should be pretty evident that this team is going to be terrible in 2024- the only currently drafted MLB bats are Ohtani, Y. Diaz, and Jordan Lawlar. The pitching staff is similarly thin, with Bryce Miller (I think he truly arrives this year) and Trevor Rodgers leading a short list of MLB contributors. The Rockies’ farm is the best in the league (I would hope it’d be given the draft strategy), and full of guys I think are going to be studs for a long time (PCA, Basallo, Gilbert, J. Jones, etc.).
Colorado’s owner (2.0 PHI) likes to construct long-term oriented teams that are going to be bad for a year or so, and that’s clearly what the case is here- the Rockies are going to be non-competitive in 2024 (the model actually has them at 31 wins), but there is a lot of promise for 2025 and beyond to say the least.
2024 Prediction: 35-127, 5TH (NL West)
29. Oakland Athletics
The trend of owners from other NPD leagues bringing their habits to 3.0 continues with Oakland (2.0 CLE). Oakland traded back into the lower levels of the draft multiple times to load up on depth. The 2024 offense is ample, but there are currently only 5 MLB pitchers rostered. This is not a team built to contend this year.
That collection of talented young bats (Casas, Pasquantino, Max Clark, Amador) will eventually serve very well as a dynasty offense. But there are only the 5 aforementioned MLB pitchers rostered, some of whom the model or I am not high on (Lodolo and Abbott, respectively). There are really nice pieces in the farm (Iriarte and Thorpe) who will probably get called up this year, and it’s a deep group of young arms behind them. However, nless Oakland can pull some better pitchers out of thin air or he trades for MLB guys, though, this is a bad 2024 pitching staff.
Oakland should win some games on the back of what I have as 3.0’s 16th best offense, but the almost complete lack of MLB pitching depth means the A’s are a lock to finish at the bottom of this league’s worst division. Similarly to Colorado, however, I think this is a team which can become competitive as soon as 2025, especially if/when a couple of guys in the deep farm turn out to be good in MLB.
2024 Prediction: 57-105, 5th (AL West)
28. Brooklyn Dodgers
To the first “shock” prediction of my model, which spat out a 100 loss season for the Dodgers. My final projection is padded a bit because the Dodgers have a smart owner, but this is not a team which I think will win particularly many games this year, despite having franchise-altering pieces who still have prospect status.
Brooklyn’s offense and pitching both rank 28th for me. The lineup is anchored by one of baseball’s most elite bats in Yordan, and there are fantastic supporting pieces- they’re just short in number (McLain, S. Suzuki, Breggy with a year remaining on his contract). Once again, my model doesn’t account for impeding debuts, so if Coby Mayo and the Martian (upon his return from the IL) perform as advertised, expect the win total here to tick up some. The pitching staff, similarly, is anchored by a stud in Pablo Lopez, with some nice surrounding pieces (M. Meyer, Maeda, Fedde), but all those guys have question marks. Overall, the MLB roster is thin, so injuries could be a real problem.
I expect Brooklyn to underperform (or perform per this projection) through the first half of the season at least, but if high impact guys get called up and good trades happen, this could turn into a .500 team- so this projection is very volatile, especially so when you consider the possibility that the projected rotation stays generally healthy. This is a roster built for long-term sustainability, with a very good minor league system that’s filled with exciting bats. Expect this season to be the Dodgers’ worst for years to come.
2024 Prediction: 68-94, 5th (NL West)
27. Montreal Expos
What you see should be what you get with Montreal. This will not be a good team in 2024, as I have their offense ranked 28th overall with a middle-of-the-pack (at best) pitching staff. Unfortunately, there aren’t many names in quantity or quality in the farm which I think might help this year.
Let’s talk about the good here, because there is some of it. Adley Rutschman is the current definition of a dynasty C, and I am more up on stud young C’s than most (because I’m lazy). Josh Jung is also a good young dynasty bat, but the offensive output drops off sharply thereafter (the next best 2024 bats are Renfroe, Arcia, Conforto). It’s just not an offense that’s good or deep enough to help mop up some wins when the starting pitching isn’t there. That starting pitching is alright but highly volatile- it feels like this is Gore’s year to put it all together (or not), and if regression or the injury bug get to N. Eovaldi, this rotation is toast. G. Williams is also a nice piece, but decades of history should tell you a heavy draft investment in a highly volatile SP prospect drafted by Colorado (Dollander) probably won’t work out.
There are nice pieces in a shallow farm (Delauter is fire) who can make an impact this year, but this projects to be a bad team this year unless drastic changes to improve depth and overall roster quality are made. The Expos are a lock to finish last in a good division.
2024 Prediction: 68-94, 5th (NL East)
26. San Diego Padres
Speaking about continuing trends- here’s another one of Adam’s rosters that I get to fade a bit
. San Dawg is a team that I simply don’t think has enough firepower to get to the playoffs this year in a very tough National League, but once SPs come back from injury and incarceration or cancellation… the sky is the limit.
This is a lineup which will get some work done, but it’s currently thin and I don’t think replacement level waiver wire pickups can remedy it (this year). I can see it imploding at any point- if N. Lowe’s regressive 2023 season holds up and Volpe does not break out (unfortunately, always a possibility), K. Schwarber is not enough with some of the other bats here to consistently string wins together. Eury Perez is a potential ace who isn’t even old enough to drink, but the rest of the rotation is either hurt, under felony investigation, or volatile (Wright, Urias, T. Henry). The Padres have a great farm full of nice young bats (R. Anthony comes from one of the country’s best high school baseball programs), and the hyped Jackson Jobe coming down the line.
The Padres are a team with a relatively volatile record projection, but they don’t have much depth and there are already a ton of guys who are hurt or serious risks (especially on the pitching side of the house). Expect this team to have a mediocre 2024 unless things change for the better with the MLB level pitching.
2024 Prediction: 70-92, 4th (NL West)
25. Houston Astros
The ‘Stros currently roster, on IL, the following pitchers with major questions about 2024 output: W. Buehler, Kershaw, Woodruff (no 2024), Rasmussen, Peterson, Tarnok. This leaves Houston, who has a playoff-caliber STARTING offense, with one of the worst projected pitching staffs in the league.
That offense is the most (lot of superlatives, this is a peculiar roster) shallow competitive one in the league, despite being well set up for success this year. The eternal greatness of M. Betts, McCormick, Ward, W. Smith, Edman- this is a consistently good group, but when Mauricio Dubon is your only bench bat, and there aren’t many AAAA guys to help out, it’s gonna be a slog. Similarly, the best healthy pitcher on a staff which is talent rich on name value is Joe Ryan (overrated).
This is a team which is good enough up front to win some games this year. But I just (and my model doesn’t) don’t see anywhere near enough depth to make up for injuries, and my model doesn’t account for good luck. This is a team which looks great on paper and might make a run later this year, but I firmly have them outside of the playoffs and looking in from some distance away. I am probably too far behind the curve to get what’s going on here.
2024 Prediction: 70-92, 4th (AL West)
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh bet heavily on 2023’s stacked draft class, as his first two picks were the best fantasy hitting and pitching prospects available (Langford and Skenes). I really like both of those dudes (and they will be household names in the future, fuck a fastball shape if you can hit your spots consistently at 100+), but the downstream impact on the 2024 roster was substantial. This is a team which was clearly built to be volatile in 2024 with crazy future potential, and I expect that to hold true.
This is an offense with quality bats at the MLB level (S. Murphy and N. Marte are supremely underrated, Varsho is good), especially if Kelenic turns into even a shade of the player we all thought he could be. The pitching staff is similarly built (but fragile)- Biebs leads a group of older and MLB-unproven vets (Imanaga, Manaea, Paxton, Ray). That staff is the difference maker, as I don’t think it’s durable or quality enough to get through what will be the NL Central gauntlet.
This team does pass the eye test, in my opinion. If Pittsburgh strikes gold and Langford, Skenes, and M. Shaw (my favorite prospect) are difference makers this year, watch out for the Pirates in the wild card race at least. For now, I have them getting beat up and finishing at the bottom of 3.0’s best division.
2024 Prediction: 72-90, 5th (NL Central)
23. Milwaukee Brewers
After slam dunking the 1.4 pick with Corbin Carroll, Milwaukee built an excellent dynasty roster which should have no problems competing in a stacked division in a year or so. The cost of that approach was a “mid” 2024 roster that’s filled with names I am personally down on.
This is a young roster which is set up for success in future years. Bats like Manzardo, Neto, Carroll, and B. Marsh headline a deep, but average at best offense. If C Nick Fortes isn’t captaining your lineup, you might be missing out. On the mound, T. Bibee is the best of a very risky grouping of arms, headlined by 2024’s King of Hype (C. Ragans). The farm is deep, though, and has some really nice young pieces who could be difference makers.
The Brew Crew have enough meat and bones on both sides of the ball to not be outright bad in 2024, but I don’t see them being particularly good (barring the owner’s clear proclivity to trade well). I have my model on the money at 73 wins, with a ton of future potential, for Milwaukee.
2024 Prediction: 73-89, 4th (AL West)
22. Seattle Mariners
2.0’s Patron Saint of Latin American IFA has become 3.0’s YOLO for Starting Pitching Champ. This is the most unsightly offense in the league, maybe, but there is enough meat and potatoes here to at least be mediocre. Unless the Moose Men make some moves, this is an antique roster which will have problems staying healthy in 2024.
The offense isn’t as bad as it looks, but it ain’t great, either. M. Yoshida is the best bat of a group of solid real life players, but mediocre fantasy guys (Wong, Haniger, Hall of Famer Joey Votto, T. Kemp). The pitching staff is fire on paper, but prone to regression/volatility/injury in real life (Kirby and Yamamoto are a great 1/2, but deGrom/McKenzie/Sale is a field of red flags). After personally watching T. Bauer pitch in Japan, I became a reluctant fan, but he still hasn’t signed. The farm has some nice pieces, I think Salas is a lock to be the Padres C of the future.
This is an older MLB roster with very good (but young) farmhands. Seattle should be able to make trades if in contention, but for now, I see a team that gets bitten really hard by relative old age and a reliance on starting pitching. Expect the M’s to finish in the middle of the pack in a bad AL West.
2024 Prediction: 73-89, 3rd (AL West)
21. Baltimore Orioles
The O’s are a well-built dynasty team that is subject to quite some volatility this year- the offense is thin and rather suspect, the pitching staff is filled with question marks, and the minor league system is deep and very good. There’s a lot of upside here, but it’s going to be hard to compete in 2024, with this roster, in a stacked division.
I have both Baltimore’s offense and pitching corps as middle of the pack. It’s a young group on the minimum cap, headlined by fantastic guys with loads of potential (CES, O. Cruz, G. Rodriguez), and there are solid players like Lars and Nick Pivetta to support them. Despite a good farm (hope Painter works out after TJ), the MLB roster isn’t dependable enough to keep up with the slog of the AL East.
This is a team rich on young talent which will be great in future seasons, however, there isn’t enough dependability here to project them as a playoff team. I have them finishing at the bottom of a tough division.
2024 Prediction: 76-86, 5th (AL East)
20. Detroit Tigers
A small cap team that outperformed most in that cap category on the draft, the Tigers are poised for a better-than-you-might-expect 2024 and have big things in store for the future.
While there are bats I’m not a fan of on this roster (R. Lewis is just too hurt too often for my tastes, and I like Jazz), it’s damn good and will carry an overrated pitching staff to a near .500 finish in the AL Central. There are some incredibly young and talented players on this lineup (Kwan, Chourio, Winn, Smith-Shawver), but the rotation is extremely suspect to put it mildly (Greinke in his advanced age, Kremer is a candidate for regression, F. Montas(why, bro?), etc.).
I’m not sure I could have drafted much better with the minimum cap if I wanted to at least try and compete this year. Detroit has a lot of upside, but with that comes a lot of volatility and a lot of question marks. I think this is a team that is going to be a pain in the ass for a lot of AL playoff contenders this year, with promise for the future.
2024 Prediction: 77-85, 5th (AL Central)
19. Philadelphia Phillies
This is a roster which is about as league-average as you can get, all around- I have both their offense and pitching staff at 14th overall. I like the way this MLB roster is built, unfortunately, I’m not sure if that is enough to beat out some of the heavier hitters in the NL this year.
Trea Turner and Arozarena are the best of a MLB lineup that’s relatively deep with decent players all around (Heim, Hoskins, Bohm, Esteury Ruiz, etc.). Similarly, the rotation is headlined by the quality and newly minted O Corbin Burnes but lacks in proven depth (Ober might have overperformed last year, and Lynn is getting old).
There is enough talent here, and the roster is deep enough, to win a meaningful amount of games. I just don’t think there is enough raw talent anywhere on this roster to push this team over the precipice and into the playoffs this year. I have them finishing just under .500.
2024 Prediction: 77-85, 4th (NL East)
18. Minnesota Twins
Minnesota has a damn good pitching staff (they’re deep, too), but my model hates their offense, and I’m not sure if they pass the eye test. This is a team which will probably finish right in the middle of the pack.
There are some sick bats on this offense, but they all have some question marks (can T. Story get back at it, can J. Lowe cut down on that K rate, etc.), but Tatis is one of my favorite players in MLB, and I think this lineup is talented and deep enough to stay afloat in the AL Central. The rotation is great- if D. Cease has a career year, watch out. There’s also a nice farm system (love Owen Caissie, and R. Lowder will probably join that good rotation this year).
Minnesota is heavily prone to pitcher injury and regression due to the fact that their lineup is volatile and relatively weak when compared to the league average. I have the Twins finishing right around .500.
2024 Prediction: 79-83, 4th (AL Central)
17. Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa is a hard team to project, and my model has them at exactly 80 wins (which I agree with)- overall, the commish decided to value his rotation over a dependable offense, and that might very well bite him in a rough AL East. It’s a thin roster which might have issues if and when injuries start to pile up.
There is a large disparity between the talent on the mound and at the plate- K. Senga leads a top-heavy rotation (Darvish, Kelly, etc.) which feels brittle. There isn’t much SP depth, either, and the lineup is in the league’s bottom third- there are many regression or “overhyped” candidates here, led by N. Jones (Bichette might actually be overvalued as well).
Tampa has an average MiLB team, and the commish likes to trade when he needs to. I have the Rays at right around .500, and that’s because I’m not high on a few of the guys on this roster. This team has the potential to finish with anywhere from 70 to 90 wins, and it just depends on how things break in real life for a lot of guys with question marks.
2024 Prediction: 80-82, 4th (AL East)
16. Los Angeles Angels
With a top 10 pitching corps, and 3rd worst lineup- Anaheim (they should have never been called the Los Angeles Angels) is this league’s most polarizing roster. This is a boom or bust team that is nearly completely dependent on a few great starting pitchers.
Wheeler and Eflin are a deadly 1-2 punch, but the injury prone Glasnow serves behind them in the rotation, along with a host of good relievers and sort-of starters. I think there is enough depth here to get the job done on the mound, but the offense, in my opinion, is god awful and won’t be able to bail out the pitching staff (E. Carter got taken too early, C. Walker is overrated in my opinion). There is depth here, but nothing truly great.
Anaheim might have the highest variability on this list. I can see this team winning anywhere from 55 to 90 games. My model has them at exactly .500, so that’s where I’ll put them, but god forbid one of those big time SPs gets hurt…
2024 Prediction: 81-81, 2nd (AL West)
15. New York Yankees
This projection is based on the fact that, at time of writing, Kyle Bradish does not need TJ. If that changes, the Bronx Bombers’ near league-worst pitching staff will get even worse, and this team (while talent rich) probably won’t make the playoffs.
A league top-half offense is the highlight here, led by Bobby Franchise (good for KC fans), with nice bats like Vladdy in tow. There are a ton of big league regulars to help back them up and fill out the roster. However, the depth is thin, and on the mound, the potential long-term loss of Bradish might be devastating. Every other SP has questions- Bradley is unproven, and Manoah had a regression for the actual ages, for example.
While there are some fire prospects (led by Ricky and Jace Jung) and this is a pretty decently constructed dynasty roster, the offense simply isn’t good enough to carry a hurt pitching corps to the playoffs. I have the MLB depth on offense carrying the Yanks to a .500, on the money, finish, with variability in that projection that trends downward.
2024 Prediction: 81-81, 3rd (AL East)
14. Chicago White Sox
As is the trend in this spot of the rankings, Chicago is a team with a league average roster, all around. The Southsiders are heavily reliant on old and decaying starting pitching, but I think this is a team with enough talent and depth to finish 2024 with a winning record.
The offense is led by Jose Ramirez and C. Seager, (Ramirez will probably have another great season) and is filled out with solid, if not boring, bats like J. McNeil (good in his good years in this format). The pitching corps is currently a minefield of red flags, both literal and figuratively (I learned my lesson with JV in 2.0 last year, there are other guys who are also hurt)… but there is enough depth to get the White Sox into contention by the All-Star Break, for sure. In addition, there are some nice, underrated prospects waiting for the call (M. Mayer, Hence, Lin).
The White Sox are a decent squad with a solid farm that should contend in the AL Central, with talent coming to their big league roster down the road. My model likes them, and I have them just cracking the playoffs in the AL.
2024 Prediction: 82-80, 3rd (AL Central), AL Wild Card 3
13. Kansas City Royals
The Royals have a middle third lineup and rotation, but it’s a better overall roster than most teams in this “tier” of the league. This is a pretty easy bet for a Wild Card berth in 2024. Despite injuries on the pitching staff, this seems like a textbook team that can make a second half run.
This is a lineup short on big-name players, but I think there’s going to be surprising depth here- A. Riley is a franchise 3B, and he’s backed up by solid dudes like Arraez, Kirilloff, and A. Gimenez. While the rotation is majorly hurt (currently), they’re all due to return around midseason and could make a major difference down the stretch. The farm is also pretty good (C. Keith should instantly help the offense when he debuts, B. House, A. Miller, some underrated pitching prospects like P. Pallette).
Overall, I think this is a team which will explode after the All-Star break, and the owner is active enough to trade when he needs to (and if he wants to contend). I have Kansas City as a team that will look terrible to open the season, and finish off strong to the tune of a Wild Card berth in the AL.
2024 Prediction: 83-81, 2nd (AL Central), AL Wild Card 2
12. Boston Red Sox
The last team to take a pitcher, Boston went left where everyone went right and closes out the draft with my model’s 3rd best offense. The cost of that was an extremely suspect pitching corps, although this is a good dynasty roster with depth on both sides of the ball.
The aforementioned offense is excellent- with top fantasy producers Tucker, Harper, and Alonso leading a group of talented younger bats (Jazz, Mead, F. Alvarez, etc.). Boston should have a full lineup every night, but the “throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks” rotation will hold the roster back from serious contention this year- Wicks, Lorenzen, and current knuckleball king M. Waldron aren’t going to be enough to get past better win-now teams in the AL.
Boston’s deep offense will be more than enough to win a good chunk of games this year, but the pitching as currently constructed will hold it back. Unless some top pitching prospects (C. Horton, Misiorowski, H. Waldrep) are difference makers this year, this is a borderline playoff team, with more to come in future years.
2024 Prediction: 85-77, 2nd (AL East), AL Wild Card 1
11. Texas Rangers
The fact that this team is probably going to win the AL West makes me upset that the division is that bad. But, my model loves the 2024 roster- this is its best 2024 pitching staff, with a bad lineup to back them up.
This is a textbook win-now rotation, it’s deep, and there are enough arms to go around to win games against anyone (Strider stands head and shoulders above his replacement level brethren), and there are some great bats on this lineup (Gunnar, Burger). However, it’s thin and bereft on real talent past that (C Nick Fortes, Meneses, Rojas, etc.).
Depth and replacement level players aren’t flashy, but they win games in this format. Texas has no care for the farm, he’s trying to clearly win now, and he might just do that in this AL West.
2024 Prediction: 86-76, AL West Champion
10. San Francisco Giants
The Giants have a top-third offense and league-average pitching corps, and I think that concoction is just good enough to be one of the last teams fighting for a playoff spot in an overpowered National League.
It’s a little short on bench bats, but this lineup is damn good- I’m a big fan of some of the guys here (Garver, J. Bell, Paredes, Julioooo, etc.)., and there’s enough talent to get to a full lineup most nights and win games. The pitching staff should work, but there are names here I think are sus (not a Hunter Greene believer long term).
If the Giants, much like his 2.0 Rockies, were in a worse division, this would likely be a playoff team with some smart trades and more depth. With an okay at best farm but the ability to make solid trades when he has to, I expect San Fran to compete in the NL West this year and finish above .500, I’m just not sure if this is a playoff team.
2024 Prediction: 86-76, 3rd (NL West)
9. Cleveland Guardians
Pair the league’s second best offense with one of it’s worst pitching corps, and this is the result- Cleveland should win a mediocre AL Central this year, but it might be tough going. This is a dynasty roster set up for near-term success, though, once stud starting pitchers on the mend start to return to service.
This offense is phenomenal, and my model has them as the AL’s best. Drafting Mr. 40/40 slash the number one dynasty baseball player (R. Acuna) doesn’t hurt, and Cleveland surrounded him with productive bats (W. Adames, J. Polanco, Eloy, etc.). This is a safe offense which should help provide consistent wins all year, but the pitching staff seems to be geared towards 2025 (Alcantara and McClanahan are on the post-TJ mend), as I’m not sure J. Gray and B. Snell (due for a step back after a career year) are enough to pop off night after night.
Cleveland has a decent farm as well, and should easily compete in an average division on the back of a great lineup. I’m not sure 2024 is their year, but Cleveland’s owner loves to trade. If they are in contention through the All-Star Break, this is a team to watch for some moves at the deadline.
2024 Prediction: 88-74, AL Central Champion
8. Atlanta Braves
Another team my model loves, the Braves have a top-10 pitching staff with a league average offense to back them up. I’m not sure that’s enough to keep up with the big dawgs in a crazy National League, but it will be enough to stay in contention for a playoff berth all year long.
Atlanta’s offense is one of the league’s best groupings of real-life players, and that plays better in this format than I think people realize. It’s deep if not flashy (B. Lowe, Machado, Swanson, M. Harris). The pitching corps is better, mostly populated by awesome sleepers (Bobby Miller, Hunter Brown, Dane Dunning, etc.).
This is one of the league’s deeper teams at the MLB level, but there’s a lack of genuine upside which might hold this team back both in MLB and at the MiLB level. I (and the model) think Atlanta is going to finish with a winning record, but just past the periphery of the playoffs.
2024 Prediction: 89-73, 3rd (NL East)
7. New York Mets
The Amazin’s are (counter to the real life Mets historical philosophy) loaded on offense, with an average at best rotation. This is a roster with serious upside, and I expect Mark’s Mets to make some serious noise in a tough NL this year.
Some of these bats you just can’t poke many holes in (i.e. Luis Robert), and Elly’s upside is top tier. The lineup is pretty deep and headlined by guys I’ve always been high on like Bo Naylor, Belly, and A. Garcia. The pitching staff has some serious question marks (Clevinger, German, Thor), but there are enough assets to go around that the trade-friendly Mark should be able to keep this team in contention if need be.
The Mets are an underrated team with a talented offense and just enough pitching to go around. Pair that with some nice pieces in the minor leagues, and I think this Is a Wild Card caliber team. Look out for more dubs if good luck strikes.
2024 Prediction: 90-72, 2nd (NL East), NL Wild Card 3
6. Chicago Cubs
The North Siders absolutely loaded up on starting pitching. While I don’t personally agree with the ridiculously early selection of some of the SPs, this is a win-now roster with a good enough offense to back up a great rotation.
I have that offense as above league-average, but not championship caliber. It’s deep with some young talent (Z. Gelof), but full of guys who I feel are due for a setback or step back (G. Springer, Crawford, Santander, etc.). The aforementioned rotation is phenomenal, led by Jersey and UNC’s Zac Gallen, and features Gasuman, Singer, and Skubal. The league’s best 1-2 punch has enough behind it to make it to the playoffs.
Chicago’s farm is relatively deep as well, and I think they’re a near certainty to contend in 2024. The question of this team’s ceiling revolves around durability and how good the offense actually is. I think my model is right on the money here at 91 wins.
2024 Prediction: 91-71, 3rd (NL Central), NL Wild Card 2
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
The D’Backs are a real contender in a stacked NL West. Trotting out a top 10 lineup and pitching corps this year, Arizona is talented (and deep) enough to emerge from a bloodbath out west to seriously contend for a NL pennant.
This is just a well built roster. Aside from G. Cole (when he’s going to take a step back is always a question), there isn’t much star power, but it’s a lengthy group of solid contributors- Goldy, Muncy, and Mullins are the best bats on the offense (Steer is overrated, sorry), and this is the deepest rotation in 3.0 (Baz, Berrios, Taillon, Wood, etc.), although all of them have their questions. This team is well set up for the future, as well, with a deep farm system.
My model loves Arizona, more than my eye does, but after doing a lot of looking around, and with a good owner, this is the best team in the NL West. I’m not sure this is a roster built to compete with the Marlins and Cardinals for a pennant, but they’re a near guarantee for a playoff berth.
2024 Prediction: 91-71, NL West Champion
4. Miami Marlins
Miami’s trade activity in the early stages of the draft allowed him to draft one of the league’s best rosters. This is a top 10 offense and pitching corps, and there isn’t much question about it. I’m not sure if there’s going to be enough powder in the keg to get through very difficult potential playoff opponents, but consider Miami to be a lock for contention.
The Marlins’ lineup and pitching corps are both proven bunches who will produce points this year. Headlined by newly christened 30/30 club member F. Lindor, the offense features extremely productive bats like Devers, Judge, and Olson… I am just fading my model (which has this team at 98 wins) a bit because I’m not sure there’s enough quality depth bats (or trade chip prospects) behind them. The pitching corps is similarly good, with guys I’d be in on this year (Woo, Bello, Civale).
If this team stays healthy and no one regresses, it’s pretty easily the best roster in a crazy National League. I just don’t see that happening. Miami is a lock to make the playoffs, with the potential for more if good luck strikes.
2024 Prediction: 93-69, NL East Champion
3. Cincinnati Reds
Heavy on starting pitching, this is a roster with enough juice on the mound to get through an absolute gauntlet in the NL Central and into the playoffs. Although the offense is suspect, 3.0’s Reds should make some noise in 2024, just like their real-life counterparts. Some depth issues will likely be offset by the owner’s trade activity.
That suspect offense isn’t really bad at all, it just pales in comparison to the league’s third best group of arms. It’s a group of solid MLB regulars with upside (W. Contreras, Torky, Nico, Verdugo), and the rotation is downright excellent (J. Luzardo is opening the door to being a true ace, and he’s followed by Bassitt/Gioltio/Detmers/etc.).
Similar to the co-commish’s 2.0 team, this is a pure win-now roster which will probably do just that. There are some depth problems, but they’re solvable. With the exception of a couple of guys (K. Teel, Celesten) this is not a farm to write home about, but that’s not the point. Cincy is a playoff lock and will probably make a solid run in the playoffs.
2024 Prediction: 94-68, 2nd (NL Central), NL Wild Card 1
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3.0’s best offense (and by a country mile, per my model) should carry a roster with league-average pitching (I literally have the pitching staff ranked 15th) into the playoffs at worst, and if everything works out right, a safe path to a serious run in 2024.
This offense is absolutely loaded. After taking the best team in real life baseball’s SS of the future in the first round, the Cards were one of the few teams that took advantage of the wealth of offense left on the draft board early. There is not one bad batter on this lineup (Freeman, a due B. Donovan, Candelario, Abrams, Friedl, etc.). It vastly outperforms a medicore pitching corps which is led by S. Gray (along with a hurt L. Garcia, Morton, and Ryu). It’s the league’s most obvious “win now” group of pitchers, all taken relatively late.
There is a wealth of talent on the offensive side of this roster, and my model has the starting rotation outperforming what you’d expect. There is more than enough offensive firepower here to get into the playoffs, and with how active the owner is, you know it’s possible this pitching corps can get pushed into the league’s upper tier. I have StL winning the NL Central and eking out a victory in the NLCS.
2024 Prediction : 95-67, NL Central & NL Champion
1. Toronto Blue Jays
This is a top 5 team, both pitching and hitting wise, per my model- and I think it’s going to be enough to get through a tough AL and hold together in the playoffs. There are basically no holes you can poke in this roster other than a C with some question marks and some depth issues, but Toronto’s owner has the trade history to plug those. Toronto should easily compete for the pennant in a relatively weak AL and I will take them to win the WS.
The lineup is jam-packed with solid everyday regulars and guys who still have tremendous amounts of upside (Langeliers, Stott, Vaughn, Arenado, A. Rosario, Nimmo). The pitching staff is about as consistent as they come, with Logan Gilbert headlining a fantastic rotation (Mikolas, J. Montgomery, Musgrove, etc.). There is simply enough here, on both sides of the ball, to cut through the teams who drafted worse or who are actually playing dynasty fantasy baseball. In addition to that, this is a decent minor league system full of guys I think are under the radar (J. Fabian and Shim are two examples).
Toronto is clearly the best team in the American League, and I think there’s enough here to make a real run in the playoffs. The Jays are a lock to seriously contend in 2024, and if even most of the guys stay healthy, the sky is the limit this year.
2024 Prediction: 100-62, AL East & 2024 WS Champion
These rankings are only for 2024. They only account for players which have previously debuted in MLB, unless they’re a super prospect and they are basically guaranteed to see significant playing time in MLB this year (i.e. Holliday and Chourio).
Most of the final record predictions here are based a model I wrote for this league which takes our scoring into account. However, I’ve adjusted most team’s records, especially the outliers, to more realistic predictions.
At the end of the day, this is all subjective, so sorry if your team isn’t where you thought it’d be on this kind of a list. Best of luck to all this year!
30. Colorado Rockies
I had considered the possibility that one of the “lower cap” teams would do this for the meme- draft Ohtani and nothing else but prospects- but was surprised when it actually happened, and how quickly it did. After taking Junior Caminero, Colorado drafted the most talented baseball player in decades to anchor a talented, but young, roster.
It should be pretty evident that this team is going to be terrible in 2024- the only currently drafted MLB bats are Ohtani, Y. Diaz, and Jordan Lawlar. The pitching staff is similarly thin, with Bryce Miller (I think he truly arrives this year) and Trevor Rodgers leading a short list of MLB contributors. The Rockies’ farm is the best in the league (I would hope it’d be given the draft strategy), and full of guys I think are going to be studs for a long time (PCA, Basallo, Gilbert, J. Jones, etc.).
Colorado’s owner (2.0 PHI) likes to construct long-term oriented teams that are going to be bad for a year or so, and that’s clearly what the case is here- the Rockies are going to be non-competitive in 2024 (the model actually has them at 31 wins), but there is a lot of promise for 2025 and beyond to say the least.
2024 Prediction: 35-127, 5TH (NL West)
29. Oakland Athletics
The trend of owners from other NPD leagues bringing their habits to 3.0 continues with Oakland (2.0 CLE). Oakland traded back into the lower levels of the draft multiple times to load up on depth. The 2024 offense is ample, but there are currently only 5 MLB pitchers rostered. This is not a team built to contend this year.
That collection of talented young bats (Casas, Pasquantino, Max Clark, Amador) will eventually serve very well as a dynasty offense. But there are only the 5 aforementioned MLB pitchers rostered, some of whom the model or I am not high on (Lodolo and Abbott, respectively). There are really nice pieces in the farm (Iriarte and Thorpe) who will probably get called up this year, and it’s a deep group of young arms behind them. However, nless Oakland can pull some better pitchers out of thin air or he trades for MLB guys, though, this is a bad 2024 pitching staff.
Oakland should win some games on the back of what I have as 3.0’s 16th best offense, but the almost complete lack of MLB pitching depth means the A’s are a lock to finish at the bottom of this league’s worst division. Similarly to Colorado, however, I think this is a team which can become competitive as soon as 2025, especially if/when a couple of guys in the deep farm turn out to be good in MLB.
2024 Prediction: 57-105, 5th (AL West)
28. Brooklyn Dodgers
To the first “shock” prediction of my model, which spat out a 100 loss season for the Dodgers. My final projection is padded a bit because the Dodgers have a smart owner, but this is not a team which I think will win particularly many games this year, despite having franchise-altering pieces who still have prospect status.
Brooklyn’s offense and pitching both rank 28th for me. The lineup is anchored by one of baseball’s most elite bats in Yordan, and there are fantastic supporting pieces- they’re just short in number (McLain, S. Suzuki, Breggy with a year remaining on his contract). Once again, my model doesn’t account for impeding debuts, so if Coby Mayo and the Martian (upon his return from the IL) perform as advertised, expect the win total here to tick up some. The pitching staff, similarly, is anchored by a stud in Pablo Lopez, with some nice surrounding pieces (M. Meyer, Maeda, Fedde), but all those guys have question marks. Overall, the MLB roster is thin, so injuries could be a real problem.
I expect Brooklyn to underperform (or perform per this projection) through the first half of the season at least, but if high impact guys get called up and good trades happen, this could turn into a .500 team- so this projection is very volatile, especially so when you consider the possibility that the projected rotation stays generally healthy. This is a roster built for long-term sustainability, with a very good minor league system that’s filled with exciting bats. Expect this season to be the Dodgers’ worst for years to come.
2024 Prediction: 68-94, 5th (NL West)
27. Montreal Expos
What you see should be what you get with Montreal. This will not be a good team in 2024, as I have their offense ranked 28th overall with a middle-of-the-pack (at best) pitching staff. Unfortunately, there aren’t many names in quantity or quality in the farm which I think might help this year.
Let’s talk about the good here, because there is some of it. Adley Rutschman is the current definition of a dynasty C, and I am more up on stud young C’s than most (because I’m lazy). Josh Jung is also a good young dynasty bat, but the offensive output drops off sharply thereafter (the next best 2024 bats are Renfroe, Arcia, Conforto). It’s just not an offense that’s good or deep enough to help mop up some wins when the starting pitching isn’t there. That starting pitching is alright but highly volatile- it feels like this is Gore’s year to put it all together (or not), and if regression or the injury bug get to N. Eovaldi, this rotation is toast. G. Williams is also a nice piece, but decades of history should tell you a heavy draft investment in a highly volatile SP prospect drafted by Colorado (Dollander) probably won’t work out.
There are nice pieces in a shallow farm (Delauter is fire) who can make an impact this year, but this projects to be a bad team this year unless drastic changes to improve depth and overall roster quality are made. The Expos are a lock to finish last in a good division.
2024 Prediction: 68-94, 5th (NL East)
26. San Diego Padres
Speaking about continuing trends- here’s another one of Adam’s rosters that I get to fade a bit
. San Dawg is a team that I simply don’t think has enough firepower to get to the playoffs this year in a very tough National League, but once SPs come back from injury and incarceration or cancellation… the sky is the limit.This is a lineup which will get some work done, but it’s currently thin and I don’t think replacement level waiver wire pickups can remedy it (this year). I can see it imploding at any point- if N. Lowe’s regressive 2023 season holds up and Volpe does not break out (unfortunately, always a possibility), K. Schwarber is not enough with some of the other bats here to consistently string wins together. Eury Perez is a potential ace who isn’t even old enough to drink, but the rest of the rotation is either hurt, under felony investigation, or volatile (Wright, Urias, T. Henry). The Padres have a great farm full of nice young bats (R. Anthony comes from one of the country’s best high school baseball programs), and the hyped Jackson Jobe coming down the line.
The Padres are a team with a relatively volatile record projection, but they don’t have much depth and there are already a ton of guys who are hurt or serious risks (especially on the pitching side of the house). Expect this team to have a mediocre 2024 unless things change for the better with the MLB level pitching.
2024 Prediction: 70-92, 4th (NL West)
25. Houston Astros
The ‘Stros currently roster, on IL, the following pitchers with major questions about 2024 output: W. Buehler, Kershaw, Woodruff (no 2024), Rasmussen, Peterson, Tarnok. This leaves Houston, who has a playoff-caliber STARTING offense, with one of the worst projected pitching staffs in the league.
That offense is the most (lot of superlatives, this is a peculiar roster) shallow competitive one in the league, despite being well set up for success this year. The eternal greatness of M. Betts, McCormick, Ward, W. Smith, Edman- this is a consistently good group, but when Mauricio Dubon is your only bench bat, and there aren’t many AAAA guys to help out, it’s gonna be a slog. Similarly, the best healthy pitcher on a staff which is talent rich on name value is Joe Ryan (overrated).
This is a team which is good enough up front to win some games this year. But I just (and my model doesn’t) don’t see anywhere near enough depth to make up for injuries, and my model doesn’t account for good luck. This is a team which looks great on paper and might make a run later this year, but I firmly have them outside of the playoffs and looking in from some distance away. I am probably too far behind the curve to get what’s going on here.
2024 Prediction: 70-92, 4th (AL West)
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh bet heavily on 2023’s stacked draft class, as his first two picks were the best fantasy hitting and pitching prospects available (Langford and Skenes). I really like both of those dudes (and they will be household names in the future, fuck a fastball shape if you can hit your spots consistently at 100+), but the downstream impact on the 2024 roster was substantial. This is a team which was clearly built to be volatile in 2024 with crazy future potential, and I expect that to hold true.
This is an offense with quality bats at the MLB level (S. Murphy and N. Marte are supremely underrated, Varsho is good), especially if Kelenic turns into even a shade of the player we all thought he could be. The pitching staff is similarly built (but fragile)- Biebs leads a group of older and MLB-unproven vets (Imanaga, Manaea, Paxton, Ray). That staff is the difference maker, as I don’t think it’s durable or quality enough to get through what will be the NL Central gauntlet.
This team does pass the eye test, in my opinion. If Pittsburgh strikes gold and Langford, Skenes, and M. Shaw (my favorite prospect) are difference makers this year, watch out for the Pirates in the wild card race at least. For now, I have them getting beat up and finishing at the bottom of 3.0’s best division.
2024 Prediction: 72-90, 5th (NL Central)
23. Milwaukee Brewers
After slam dunking the 1.4 pick with Corbin Carroll, Milwaukee built an excellent dynasty roster which should have no problems competing in a stacked division in a year or so. The cost of that approach was a “mid” 2024 roster that’s filled with names I am personally down on.
This is a young roster which is set up for success in future years. Bats like Manzardo, Neto, Carroll, and B. Marsh headline a deep, but average at best offense. If C Nick Fortes isn’t captaining your lineup, you might be missing out. On the mound, T. Bibee is the best of a very risky grouping of arms, headlined by 2024’s King of Hype (C. Ragans). The farm is deep, though, and has some really nice young pieces who could be difference makers.
The Brew Crew have enough meat and bones on both sides of the ball to not be outright bad in 2024, but I don’t see them being particularly good (barring the owner’s clear proclivity to trade well). I have my model on the money at 73 wins, with a ton of future potential, for Milwaukee.
2024 Prediction: 73-89, 4th (AL West)
22. Seattle Mariners
2.0’s Patron Saint of Latin American IFA has become 3.0’s YOLO for Starting Pitching Champ. This is the most unsightly offense in the league, maybe, but there is enough meat and potatoes here to at least be mediocre. Unless the Moose Men make some moves, this is an antique roster which will have problems staying healthy in 2024.
The offense isn’t as bad as it looks, but it ain’t great, either. M. Yoshida is the best bat of a group of solid real life players, but mediocre fantasy guys (Wong, Haniger, Hall of Famer Joey Votto, T. Kemp). The pitching staff is fire on paper, but prone to regression/volatility/injury in real life (Kirby and Yamamoto are a great 1/2, but deGrom/McKenzie/Sale is a field of red flags). After personally watching T. Bauer pitch in Japan, I became a reluctant fan, but he still hasn’t signed. The farm has some nice pieces, I think Salas is a lock to be the Padres C of the future.
This is an older MLB roster with very good (but young) farmhands. Seattle should be able to make trades if in contention, but for now, I see a team that gets bitten really hard by relative old age and a reliance on starting pitching. Expect the M’s to finish in the middle of the pack in a bad AL West.
2024 Prediction: 73-89, 3rd (AL West)
21. Baltimore Orioles
The O’s are a well-built dynasty team that is subject to quite some volatility this year- the offense is thin and rather suspect, the pitching staff is filled with question marks, and the minor league system is deep and very good. There’s a lot of upside here, but it’s going to be hard to compete in 2024, with this roster, in a stacked division.
I have both Baltimore’s offense and pitching corps as middle of the pack. It’s a young group on the minimum cap, headlined by fantastic guys with loads of potential (CES, O. Cruz, G. Rodriguez), and there are solid players like Lars and Nick Pivetta to support them. Despite a good farm (hope Painter works out after TJ), the MLB roster isn’t dependable enough to keep up with the slog of the AL East.
This is a team rich on young talent which will be great in future seasons, however, there isn’t enough dependability here to project them as a playoff team. I have them finishing at the bottom of a tough division.
2024 Prediction: 76-86, 5th (AL East)
20. Detroit Tigers
A small cap team that outperformed most in that cap category on the draft, the Tigers are poised for a better-than-you-might-expect 2024 and have big things in store for the future.
While there are bats I’m not a fan of on this roster (R. Lewis is just too hurt too often for my tastes, and I like Jazz), it’s damn good and will carry an overrated pitching staff to a near .500 finish in the AL Central. There are some incredibly young and talented players on this lineup (Kwan, Chourio, Winn, Smith-Shawver), but the rotation is extremely suspect to put it mildly (Greinke in his advanced age, Kremer is a candidate for regression, F. Montas(why, bro?), etc.).
I’m not sure I could have drafted much better with the minimum cap if I wanted to at least try and compete this year. Detroit has a lot of upside, but with that comes a lot of volatility and a lot of question marks. I think this is a team that is going to be a pain in the ass for a lot of AL playoff contenders this year, with promise for the future.
2024 Prediction: 77-85, 5th (AL Central)
19. Philadelphia Phillies
This is a roster which is about as league-average as you can get, all around- I have both their offense and pitching staff at 14th overall. I like the way this MLB roster is built, unfortunately, I’m not sure if that is enough to beat out some of the heavier hitters in the NL this year.
Trea Turner and Arozarena are the best of a MLB lineup that’s relatively deep with decent players all around (Heim, Hoskins, Bohm, Esteury Ruiz, etc.). Similarly, the rotation is headlined by the quality and newly minted O Corbin Burnes but lacks in proven depth (Ober might have overperformed last year, and Lynn is getting old).
There is enough talent here, and the roster is deep enough, to win a meaningful amount of games. I just don’t think there is enough raw talent anywhere on this roster to push this team over the precipice and into the playoffs this year. I have them finishing just under .500.
2024 Prediction: 77-85, 4th (NL East)
18. Minnesota Twins
Minnesota has a damn good pitching staff (they’re deep, too), but my model hates their offense, and I’m not sure if they pass the eye test. This is a team which will probably finish right in the middle of the pack.
There are some sick bats on this offense, but they all have some question marks (can T. Story get back at it, can J. Lowe cut down on that K rate, etc.), but Tatis is one of my favorite players in MLB, and I think this lineup is talented and deep enough to stay afloat in the AL Central. The rotation is great- if D. Cease has a career year, watch out. There’s also a nice farm system (love Owen Caissie, and R. Lowder will probably join that good rotation this year).
Minnesota is heavily prone to pitcher injury and regression due to the fact that their lineup is volatile and relatively weak when compared to the league average. I have the Twins finishing right around .500.
2024 Prediction: 79-83, 4th (AL Central)
17. Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa is a hard team to project, and my model has them at exactly 80 wins (which I agree with)- overall, the commish decided to value his rotation over a dependable offense, and that might very well bite him in a rough AL East. It’s a thin roster which might have issues if and when injuries start to pile up.
There is a large disparity between the talent on the mound and at the plate- K. Senga leads a top-heavy rotation (Darvish, Kelly, etc.) which feels brittle. There isn’t much SP depth, either, and the lineup is in the league’s bottom third- there are many regression or “overhyped” candidates here, led by N. Jones (Bichette might actually be overvalued as well).
Tampa has an average MiLB team, and the commish likes to trade when he needs to. I have the Rays at right around .500, and that’s because I’m not high on a few of the guys on this roster. This team has the potential to finish with anywhere from 70 to 90 wins, and it just depends on how things break in real life for a lot of guys with question marks.
2024 Prediction: 80-82, 4th (AL East)
16. Los Angeles Angels
With a top 10 pitching corps, and 3rd worst lineup- Anaheim (they should have never been called the Los Angeles Angels) is this league’s most polarizing roster. This is a boom or bust team that is nearly completely dependent on a few great starting pitchers.
Wheeler and Eflin are a deadly 1-2 punch, but the injury prone Glasnow serves behind them in the rotation, along with a host of good relievers and sort-of starters. I think there is enough depth here to get the job done on the mound, but the offense, in my opinion, is god awful and won’t be able to bail out the pitching staff (E. Carter got taken too early, C. Walker is overrated in my opinion). There is depth here, but nothing truly great.
Anaheim might have the highest variability on this list. I can see this team winning anywhere from 55 to 90 games. My model has them at exactly .500, so that’s where I’ll put them, but god forbid one of those big time SPs gets hurt…
2024 Prediction: 81-81, 2nd (AL West)
15. New York Yankees
This projection is based on the fact that, at time of writing, Kyle Bradish does not need TJ. If that changes, the Bronx Bombers’ near league-worst pitching staff will get even worse, and this team (while talent rich) probably won’t make the playoffs.
A league top-half offense is the highlight here, led by Bobby Franchise (good for KC fans), with nice bats like Vladdy in tow. There are a ton of big league regulars to help back them up and fill out the roster. However, the depth is thin, and on the mound, the potential long-term loss of Bradish might be devastating. Every other SP has questions- Bradley is unproven, and Manoah had a regression for the actual ages, for example.
While there are some fire prospects (led by Ricky and Jace Jung) and this is a pretty decently constructed dynasty roster, the offense simply isn’t good enough to carry a hurt pitching corps to the playoffs. I have the MLB depth on offense carrying the Yanks to a .500, on the money, finish, with variability in that projection that trends downward.
2024 Prediction: 81-81, 3rd (AL East)
14. Chicago White Sox
As is the trend in this spot of the rankings, Chicago is a team with a league average roster, all around. The Southsiders are heavily reliant on old and decaying starting pitching, but I think this is a team with enough talent and depth to finish 2024 with a winning record.
The offense is led by Jose Ramirez and C. Seager, (Ramirez will probably have another great season) and is filled out with solid, if not boring, bats like J. McNeil (good in his good years in this format). The pitching corps is currently a minefield of red flags, both literal and figuratively (I learned my lesson with JV in 2.0 last year, there are other guys who are also hurt)… but there is enough depth to get the White Sox into contention by the All-Star Break, for sure. In addition, there are some nice, underrated prospects waiting for the call (M. Mayer, Hence, Lin).
The White Sox are a decent squad with a solid farm that should contend in the AL Central, with talent coming to their big league roster down the road. My model likes them, and I have them just cracking the playoffs in the AL.
2024 Prediction: 82-80, 3rd (AL Central), AL Wild Card 3
13. Kansas City Royals
The Royals have a middle third lineup and rotation, but it’s a better overall roster than most teams in this “tier” of the league. This is a pretty easy bet for a Wild Card berth in 2024. Despite injuries on the pitching staff, this seems like a textbook team that can make a second half run.
This is a lineup short on big-name players, but I think there’s going to be surprising depth here- A. Riley is a franchise 3B, and he’s backed up by solid dudes like Arraez, Kirilloff, and A. Gimenez. While the rotation is majorly hurt (currently), they’re all due to return around midseason and could make a major difference down the stretch. The farm is also pretty good (C. Keith should instantly help the offense when he debuts, B. House, A. Miller, some underrated pitching prospects like P. Pallette).
Overall, I think this is a team which will explode after the All-Star break, and the owner is active enough to trade when he needs to (and if he wants to contend). I have Kansas City as a team that will look terrible to open the season, and finish off strong to the tune of a Wild Card berth in the AL.
2024 Prediction: 83-81, 2nd (AL Central), AL Wild Card 2
12. Boston Red Sox
The last team to take a pitcher, Boston went left where everyone went right and closes out the draft with my model’s 3rd best offense. The cost of that was an extremely suspect pitching corps, although this is a good dynasty roster with depth on both sides of the ball.
The aforementioned offense is excellent- with top fantasy producers Tucker, Harper, and Alonso leading a group of talented younger bats (Jazz, Mead, F. Alvarez, etc.). Boston should have a full lineup every night, but the “throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks” rotation will hold the roster back from serious contention this year- Wicks, Lorenzen, and current knuckleball king M. Waldron aren’t going to be enough to get past better win-now teams in the AL.
Boston’s deep offense will be more than enough to win a good chunk of games this year, but the pitching as currently constructed will hold it back. Unless some top pitching prospects (C. Horton, Misiorowski, H. Waldrep) are difference makers this year, this is a borderline playoff team, with more to come in future years.
2024 Prediction: 85-77, 2nd (AL East), AL Wild Card 1
11. Texas Rangers
The fact that this team is probably going to win the AL West makes me upset that the division is that bad. But, my model loves the 2024 roster- this is its best 2024 pitching staff, with a bad lineup to back them up.
This is a textbook win-now rotation, it’s deep, and there are enough arms to go around to win games against anyone (Strider stands head and shoulders above his replacement level brethren), and there are some great bats on this lineup (Gunnar, Burger). However, it’s thin and bereft on real talent past that (C Nick Fortes, Meneses, Rojas, etc.).
Depth and replacement level players aren’t flashy, but they win games in this format. Texas has no care for the farm, he’s trying to clearly win now, and he might just do that in this AL West.
2024 Prediction: 86-76, AL West Champion
10. San Francisco Giants
The Giants have a top-third offense and league-average pitching corps, and I think that concoction is just good enough to be one of the last teams fighting for a playoff spot in an overpowered National League.
It’s a little short on bench bats, but this lineup is damn good- I’m a big fan of some of the guys here (Garver, J. Bell, Paredes, Julioooo, etc.)., and there’s enough talent to get to a full lineup most nights and win games. The pitching staff should work, but there are names here I think are sus (not a Hunter Greene believer long term).
If the Giants, much like his 2.0 Rockies, were in a worse division, this would likely be a playoff team with some smart trades and more depth. With an okay at best farm but the ability to make solid trades when he has to, I expect San Fran to compete in the NL West this year and finish above .500, I’m just not sure if this is a playoff team.
2024 Prediction: 86-76, 3rd (NL West)
9. Cleveland Guardians
Pair the league’s second best offense with one of it’s worst pitching corps, and this is the result- Cleveland should win a mediocre AL Central this year, but it might be tough going. This is a dynasty roster set up for near-term success, though, once stud starting pitchers on the mend start to return to service.
This offense is phenomenal, and my model has them as the AL’s best. Drafting Mr. 40/40 slash the number one dynasty baseball player (R. Acuna) doesn’t hurt, and Cleveland surrounded him with productive bats (W. Adames, J. Polanco, Eloy, etc.). This is a safe offense which should help provide consistent wins all year, but the pitching staff seems to be geared towards 2025 (Alcantara and McClanahan are on the post-TJ mend), as I’m not sure J. Gray and B. Snell (due for a step back after a career year) are enough to pop off night after night.
Cleveland has a decent farm as well, and should easily compete in an average division on the back of a great lineup. I’m not sure 2024 is their year, but Cleveland’s owner loves to trade. If they are in contention through the All-Star Break, this is a team to watch for some moves at the deadline.
2024 Prediction: 88-74, AL Central Champion
8. Atlanta Braves
Another team my model loves, the Braves have a top-10 pitching staff with a league average offense to back them up. I’m not sure that’s enough to keep up with the big dawgs in a crazy National League, but it will be enough to stay in contention for a playoff berth all year long.
Atlanta’s offense is one of the league’s best groupings of real-life players, and that plays better in this format than I think people realize. It’s deep if not flashy (B. Lowe, Machado, Swanson, M. Harris). The pitching corps is better, mostly populated by awesome sleepers (Bobby Miller, Hunter Brown, Dane Dunning, etc.).
This is one of the league’s deeper teams at the MLB level, but there’s a lack of genuine upside which might hold this team back both in MLB and at the MiLB level. I (and the model) think Atlanta is going to finish with a winning record, but just past the periphery of the playoffs.
2024 Prediction: 89-73, 3rd (NL East)
7. New York Mets
The Amazin’s are (counter to the real life Mets historical philosophy) loaded on offense, with an average at best rotation. This is a roster with serious upside, and I expect Mark’s Mets to make some serious noise in a tough NL this year.
Some of these bats you just can’t poke many holes in (i.e. Luis Robert), and Elly’s upside is top tier. The lineup is pretty deep and headlined by guys I’ve always been high on like Bo Naylor, Belly, and A. Garcia. The pitching staff has some serious question marks (Clevinger, German, Thor), but there are enough assets to go around that the trade-friendly Mark should be able to keep this team in contention if need be.
The Mets are an underrated team with a talented offense and just enough pitching to go around. Pair that with some nice pieces in the minor leagues, and I think this Is a Wild Card caliber team. Look out for more dubs if good luck strikes.
2024 Prediction: 90-72, 2nd (NL East), NL Wild Card 3
6. Chicago Cubs
The North Siders absolutely loaded up on starting pitching. While I don’t personally agree with the ridiculously early selection of some of the SPs, this is a win-now roster with a good enough offense to back up a great rotation.
I have that offense as above league-average, but not championship caliber. It’s deep with some young talent (Z. Gelof), but full of guys who I feel are due for a setback or step back (G. Springer, Crawford, Santander, etc.). The aforementioned rotation is phenomenal, led by Jersey and UNC’s Zac Gallen, and features Gasuman, Singer, and Skubal. The league’s best 1-2 punch has enough behind it to make it to the playoffs.
Chicago’s farm is relatively deep as well, and I think they’re a near certainty to contend in 2024. The question of this team’s ceiling revolves around durability and how good the offense actually is. I think my model is right on the money here at 91 wins.
2024 Prediction: 91-71, 3rd (NL Central), NL Wild Card 2
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
The D’Backs are a real contender in a stacked NL West. Trotting out a top 10 lineup and pitching corps this year, Arizona is talented (and deep) enough to emerge from a bloodbath out west to seriously contend for a NL pennant.
This is just a well built roster. Aside from G. Cole (when he’s going to take a step back is always a question), there isn’t much star power, but it’s a lengthy group of solid contributors- Goldy, Muncy, and Mullins are the best bats on the offense (Steer is overrated, sorry), and this is the deepest rotation in 3.0 (Baz, Berrios, Taillon, Wood, etc.), although all of them have their questions. This team is well set up for the future, as well, with a deep farm system.
My model loves Arizona, more than my eye does, but after doing a lot of looking around, and with a good owner, this is the best team in the NL West. I’m not sure this is a roster built to compete with the Marlins and Cardinals for a pennant, but they’re a near guarantee for a playoff berth.
2024 Prediction: 91-71, NL West Champion
4. Miami Marlins
Miami’s trade activity in the early stages of the draft allowed him to draft one of the league’s best rosters. This is a top 10 offense and pitching corps, and there isn’t much question about it. I’m not sure if there’s going to be enough powder in the keg to get through very difficult potential playoff opponents, but consider Miami to be a lock for contention.
The Marlins’ lineup and pitching corps are both proven bunches who will produce points this year. Headlined by newly christened 30/30 club member F. Lindor, the offense features extremely productive bats like Devers, Judge, and Olson… I am just fading my model (which has this team at 98 wins) a bit because I’m not sure there’s enough quality depth bats (or trade chip prospects) behind them. The pitching corps is similarly good, with guys I’d be in on this year (Woo, Bello, Civale).
If this team stays healthy and no one regresses, it’s pretty easily the best roster in a crazy National League. I just don’t see that happening. Miami is a lock to make the playoffs, with the potential for more if good luck strikes.
2024 Prediction: 93-69, NL East Champion
3. Cincinnati Reds
Heavy on starting pitching, this is a roster with enough juice on the mound to get through an absolute gauntlet in the NL Central and into the playoffs. Although the offense is suspect, 3.0’s Reds should make some noise in 2024, just like their real-life counterparts. Some depth issues will likely be offset by the owner’s trade activity.
That suspect offense isn’t really bad at all, it just pales in comparison to the league’s third best group of arms. It’s a group of solid MLB regulars with upside (W. Contreras, Torky, Nico, Verdugo), and the rotation is downright excellent (J. Luzardo is opening the door to being a true ace, and he’s followed by Bassitt/Gioltio/Detmers/etc.).
Similar to the co-commish’s 2.0 team, this is a pure win-now roster which will probably do just that. There are some depth problems, but they’re solvable. With the exception of a couple of guys (K. Teel, Celesten) this is not a farm to write home about, but that’s not the point. Cincy is a playoff lock and will probably make a solid run in the playoffs.
2024 Prediction: 94-68, 2nd (NL Central), NL Wild Card 1
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3.0’s best offense (and by a country mile, per my model) should carry a roster with league-average pitching (I literally have the pitching staff ranked 15th) into the playoffs at worst, and if everything works out right, a safe path to a serious run in 2024.
This offense is absolutely loaded. After taking the best team in real life baseball’s SS of the future in the first round, the Cards were one of the few teams that took advantage of the wealth of offense left on the draft board early. There is not one bad batter on this lineup (Freeman, a due B. Donovan, Candelario, Abrams, Friedl, etc.). It vastly outperforms a medicore pitching corps which is led by S. Gray (along with a hurt L. Garcia, Morton, and Ryu). It’s the league’s most obvious “win now” group of pitchers, all taken relatively late.
There is a wealth of talent on the offensive side of this roster, and my model has the starting rotation outperforming what you’d expect. There is more than enough offensive firepower here to get into the playoffs, and with how active the owner is, you know it’s possible this pitching corps can get pushed into the league’s upper tier. I have StL winning the NL Central and eking out a victory in the NLCS.
2024 Prediction : 95-67, NL Central & NL Champion
1. Toronto Blue Jays
This is a top 5 team, both pitching and hitting wise, per my model- and I think it’s going to be enough to get through a tough AL and hold together in the playoffs. There are basically no holes you can poke in this roster other than a C with some question marks and some depth issues, but Toronto’s owner has the trade history to plug those. Toronto should easily compete for the pennant in a relatively weak AL and I will take them to win the WS.
The lineup is jam-packed with solid everyday regulars and guys who still have tremendous amounts of upside (Langeliers, Stott, Vaughn, Arenado, A. Rosario, Nimmo). The pitching staff is about as consistent as they come, with Logan Gilbert headlining a fantastic rotation (Mikolas, J. Montgomery, Musgrove, etc.). There is simply enough here, on both sides of the ball, to cut through the teams who drafted worse or who are actually playing dynasty fantasy baseball. In addition to that, this is a decent minor league system full of guys I think are under the radar (J. Fabian and Shim are two examples).
Toronto is clearly the best team in the American League, and I think there’s enough here to make a real run in the playoffs. The Jays are a lock to seriously contend in 2024, and if even most of the guys stay healthy, the sky is the limit this year.
2024 Prediction: 100-62, AL East & 2024 WS Champion