|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 4, 2024 17:21:11 GMT -5
I don't know how long this will last, but going to give it a shot to have a blurb about each pick and the respective team that made the pick and the thoughts in my head behind each decision as teams build their organization.
On the clock after a trade to move from 1-6 to 1-1... the Cleveland Guardians
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 4, 2024 19:09:30 GMT -5
1.1 - Ronald Acuna Jr. - Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland made the easiest pick of the draft. Acuna at his best was an almost 750 point player. His median is a 500 point player. At the price tag of 17M a year for the remainder of the contract, the pick was a lock from the second the league was created. Guardians traded up to make the pick and didn’t lose much value by doing so either. He is only missing a third round pick, but has two fourth rounders to make up for the missed pick in the third round. This was a very solid move all the way around for Cleveland and the obvious major building block to start an organization with.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 4, 2024 19:19:04 GMT -5
1.2 - Bobby Witt Jr. - New York Yankees
Two picks, two trades. The Yankees swung a trade with Houston to grab one of the best young players in the league, but at a cost. The Bronx Bombers won’t pick again til pick 62. At a premium position, Bobby Witt Jr. is arguably the best pick to make based on contract flexibility and the position he plays. One stolen base short of being a 30-50 player, Witt accumulated 530 points last season. At TC3 ($1M), the Yankees still have basically all of their $225M salary at their disposal for future picks. Back-to-back chalk picks to start the draft and a great start for the Yankees.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 4, 2024 19:26:12 GMT -5
1.3 - Julio Rodriguez - San Francisco Giants
Julio Rodriguez is signed forever at just $18M per year, this was the easy pick to make at 3. The Giants didn’t have to trade into their slot and get a cornerstone player at a position that has seen the fantasy ability tank over the last couple of years. The top outfielders have been in right field lately, so getting a center fielder you can depend on to potentially be a 30-30 player is a can’t miss pick for the Giants. They are in a loaded division cap wise with multiple top level caps, so it will be interesting how these teams, including the Giants, maneuver the cap space they have. 3rd straight great pick.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 4, 2024 19:35:18 GMT -5
1.4 - Corbin Carroll - Milwaukee Brewers
The reigning National League Rookie of the Year signed an extension before the season started last year and lived up to the hype ten-fold. The ability to hit for power and have a sprint speed in the 99th percentile in the league doesn’t come around too often and the Brewers weren’t going to miss out on it. He should only continue to get better and has the ability to play all three outfield positions which gives Milwaukee the much wanted flexibility in the outfield. He won’t get into a double-digit salary until 2026, so there is another reason to not pass up Carroll in the top 5. The Brewers have set themselves up with the fourth straight cornerstone player of the draft.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 4, 2024 19:45:24 GMT -5
1.5 - Kyle Tucker - Boston Red Sox
The third “right fielder” of the top 5 off the board at number five for the Red Sox. Tucker is ARB2 and is extendable immediately and could be the fourth of five players to be signed long-term. He is not a player that is going to wow you on the field, but he continues to put up top numbers in the fantasy realm year in and year out and is in the middle of a very solid lineup. He has been one of the most consistent players over the last three years where he just finished his third straight year with 470+ points in this format with a career-best 578 points in 2023. He has overtaken Yordan Alvarez as the player to take out of this Houston lineup with his ability to have a 30-30 season. The stolen base ability will go away at some point, but for now Tucker is an obvious top 5 fantasy player in any format.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 5, 2024 7:12:44 GMT -5
1.6 - Gunnar Henderson - Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers potentially made the biggest mistake of the draft by trading for the sixth overall pick. He already had the seventh pick of the draft and traded for the sixth, but gave up a lot to do it. He will pick again next at 7, then at 67 and not again til 127 and then 187. He is without a second, fourth and sixth round pick all together by trading up for 1.6. He is also missing out on an eighth round pick putting him without a pick for a long time multiple times throughout the first 10 rounds. This wouldn't be too big of a deal if he had a 225M cap, but he has 135M to spend instead. When he goes 120 picks from 67 to 187 and only has one more player, that could be detrimental to the building of the organization, especially if the high payroll teams continue taking cheaper players within the first 8 rounds.
Now to the pick that he did make -- Gunnar Henderson. This is a great pick in this spot. Henderson looks to be one of the best young players in the game and he will have him under cheaper control for the next five seasons. This works well with the cap spot he is in for this season and potentially next. Henderson was the American League Rookie of the Year in 2023 and came out with few holes in his game. He did struggle against left-handed pitching, but he doesn't seem to be a platoon option at all in the foreseeable future. Henderson is another cornerstone player that you can't pass up in this spot and he didn't miss. A sixth straight great pick in the first round.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 5, 2024 7:25:12 GMT -5
1.7 - Spencer Strider - Texas Rangers
The Rangers went back-to-back and got the duo most teams would want. He backed up an All-Star shortstop with an ace pitcher that is fantastic in this format. Strider struck out 281 in 186.2 innings with 18 quality starts accumulating 621 points in 2023 with the leagues scoring. He is the first pitcher off the board and is still only 1M for the 2024 and 4M in 2025. This fits nicely with the salary that the Rangers are working with. You can't go wrong with the players the Rangers took with two picks in the top 10, I'm just afraid it's a move that will be regretted as we get deeper into the draft and the cheaper options are few and far between.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 5, 2024 7:48:37 GMT -5
1.8 - Mookie Betts - Houston Astros
The first $25M player is off the board at 1.8 in Betts. Betts hit for his best average since 2018 with 40 doubles and 39 home runs leading to a 620 point season. He has been a top 10 fantasy player for years and the production more than matches the price tag to have him. Adding eligibility at second base only helps the case for taking him at eight for Houston as he can play both right field and second base in 2024. Another great pick and one that fits the GM of this team well. Building with high priced position players and going with cheaper/young pitching. We'll see how things go for Houston, but he is off to a great start.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 5, 2024 7:54:05 GMT -5
1.9 - Fernando Tatis Jr. - Minnesota Twins
Tatis no longer has the question marks surrounding him regarding suspensions and with that out of the way is no doubt one of the best young players in the game. He is signed for thru 2034 and only costs 11M in 2024. He also gained multiple eligibility by playing right field due to the packed infield in San Diego after a trade last season. He didn't hit for as much home run power in 2023 as he did in 2022, but he is still a prolific player that will be a great organization starter for Minnesota. Another long-term extended player is off the board in the top 10 as teams look to build for not only this season but future years. It hasn't been all about getting the TC2 guys just yet, it's been about the already extended position players that can carry a team for the long haul.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 5, 2024 9:17:10 GMT -5
1.10 - Matt Olson - Miami Marlins
The Marlins made three trades before the draft even got started, first by trading for 1.1. He then flipped that for multiple picks in the 9-14 round range plus 1.6. That wasn't enough pick stashing - they then turned around and traded 1.6 to Texas for multiple picks before the 10th round. The Marlins have the same first round pick they had when the lottery happened and have collected multiple second and sixth round picks while losing their 9th and 10th round picks. He will have 10 players selected by the 234th pick in the draft in the 8th round. You can't go wrong with that strategy.
Matt Olson led the National League in home runs a year ago and is in a lineup that offers plenty of ability to put up runs in bunches and Olson is right in the middle of it all. I honestly didn't have him in my top 10, but it's still a good pick. It solidifies the first base spot that has really taken a massive hit the last few years. We'll see what Miami is able to do with the picks he collected in the trades to put pieces around Olson.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 5, 2024 12:09:55 GMT -5
1.11 - Yordan Alvarez - Brooklyn Dodgers
Yordan, for a power hitter, has great plate discipline and can hit the ball to all fields for the gap to gap power that makes him so good. He doesn't strike out a ton to kill you in this league and the lineup he is in provides plenty of opportunity to be a 3.5 point player for the foreseeable future. I'm surprised he lasted this long. I would have taken him over Olson and even Tatis. This is a great pick for the Dodgers.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 5, 2024 17:05:17 GMT -5
1.12 - Elly De La Cruz - New York Mets
The wow factor is obviously there with Elly De La Cruz. He has the ability to steal 45 bases, hit 25 home runs and add in 10 or so triples even in Great American Ball Park. The swing and miss is a bit scary, especially from the right side of the plate but you can't pass up on a potential generational player. This is not the pick I thought the Mets would make (Ohtani), but it is a very good selection that gives him plenty of spending money for the rest of the draft.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 10:37:55 GMT -5
1.13 - Jackson Holliday - St. Louis Cardinals
I didn’t think Jackson Holliday would make it out of the first round, especially with a real chance to make the Opening Day roster for the Orioles. The Cardinals are pulling a card out of 2.0 Yankees book and taking a top prospect with the 13th pick in the draft. 2.0 Yankees got the National League ROY in Corbin Carroll at this pick, the Cardinals are looking for the AL ROY this year. Holliday has all the tools to be a legitimate Major League superstar and the Cardinals will have him for at least the next six seasons. The power, speed and plate discipline make him the best prospect in baseball and all of it should translate to the big leagues seamlessly. This is a great starting point for the Cardinals to build around. With the top prospect off the board, I don’t think the top five will be far behind Holliday.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 10:48:03 GMT -5
1.14 - Evan Carter - Los Angeles Angels
The top Rangers prospect took his game to a new level once he got to the big leagues and shined in the postseason. He is known for his plate discipline, but could see an uptick in power over time. He has 10 extra-base hits in 23 regular season games and also stole three bases. He should be in the Rangers lineup on Opening Day with Wyatt Langford not far behind chasing after an outfield spot in Arlington. The Angels are on a cap limit, so it wasn’t much of a surprise that he went with a player in TC1. I did think that Carter would last a little bit longer in the first round, but it’s a smart pick for the Angels based on their cap. He isn’t exactly the cornerstone player you take at 14, but I don’t blame the Angels for making the pick.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 10:59:22 GMT -5
1.15 - Junior Caminero - Colorado Rockies
The second prospect is off the board in the first 15 picks. Junior Caminero is projected to be on the big league roster at some point in 2023. It could be sooner rather than later with Wander Franco in trouble in the D.R. Caminero is by all accounts a five-tool player that should make an impact at the big league level immediately. It was no surprise to a lot of teams in the league that the Rockies went with a prospect close to the big leagues based on his team in 2.0. I thought it was going to be Wyatt Langford, but Caminero is also at the top of everyone’s list for guys to take in the first couple of rounds. It will be interesting to see what the Rockies do in the next couple of rounds to see what direction they are heading.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 11:08:02 GMT -5
1.16 - Juan Soto - Toronto Blue Jays
Juan Soto finally goes off the board at #16. He only has one year left on his current contract but the Blue Jays know they will be extending him somewhere in the 45M range for 5 years. He has consistently been a top 10 hitter in the game since he made his debut. He is still only entering his age 25 season and should just now be entering his prime. This was an excellent pick for the Blue Jays especially knowing they can extend him immediately for the long term. Another cornerstone player is off the board.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 11:19:58 GMT -5
1.17 - Michael Harris II - Atlanta Braves
I thought the Braves would go with an infield core after loading up in the outfield in 2.0, but Michael Harris II was there for the taking. His contract is team-friendly for years to come like every other Braves position player. The last two years have shown what you will get from Harris. Close to .300 average, 30 doubles, 15-20 home runs and 20 home runs. That is not a player you can pass up in the middle of first round when almost half the league is going to select two players before you. This fits the Braves GM’s M.O. well. This is a great pick.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 11:26:59 GMT -5
1.18 - George Kirby - Seattle Mariners
Just the third pitcher off the board, George Kirby, took a big step in development in 2023 and found himself at the top of the rotation for the Mariners staff. He is a strike thrower that can go deep into games because he isn’t allowing free passes. He only walked 19 batters in 190.2 innings and 757 batters faced while striking out 172 batters. He tallied 20 quality starts in 31 appearances to go along with 13 wins. His great season earned him an 8th place finish in the American League Cy Young voting and he is still only entering his age 25 season. The Mariners get their top of the rotation arm in the first round with a great pick of Kirby.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 11:51:53 GMT -5
1.19 - Adley Rutschmann - Montreal Expos
This is the first pick I don’t agree with. I just can’t get behind taking a catcher in the first round of a dynasty. Rutchsmann is a top three catcher in this format but I wouldn’t be able to stomach taking a catcher in the first round with so many other players just as good or better than him available. The contract is definitely a plus for him, but there are just so many other players that will outproduce him in this format.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 16:32:33 GMT -5
1.20 - Bo Bichette - Tampa Bay Rays
The plan was to take Zac Gallen but Bo Bichette was still sitting there and I couldn’t pass him up. Obviously pitching is king in this league, but there will be plenty in round 2 with the amount of bats coming off the board thru 20 picks. If Bo can stay healthy then he should be a 30 double, 20 homers and .300 average player. He relies on putting the ball in play, so let’s hope he can continue to find hits. If he can play 150 games, 200 hits is in reach for Bo.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 16:35:45 GMT -5
1.21 - Austin Riley - Kansas City Royals
The fifth Atlanta Brave of the first round is off the board with Austin Riley. He is signed long term and will be doubles and homer power the Royals GM usually looks for. He went heavy pitching in 2.0, not surprised he went with a long-term bat here. Riley should be a 30 doubles and 30 home run machine for years to come and has the opportunity to drive in 100 runs each and every year. This is a great pick for Kansas City as he locks down the 3B spot that has seen a decline in recent years as far deep talent. He gets one of the best.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 16:38:32 GMT -5
1.22 - Zac Gallen - Chicago Cubs
The third pitcher of the draft is off the board with Gallen. I’m surprised it took this long for him to get selected after another very solid year for the DBacks. He pitches in a pitchers park for half his games and is a ground ball machine when the opponents put the ball in play. He will be extendable immediately with the pick with his ARB2 year coming up in 2024. A very solid pick for the Cubs in this spot. He will anchor a rotation for the Cubs that will play in a division with some very good owners.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 16:43:05 GMT -5
1.23 - Corbin Burnes - Philadelphia Phillies
Back-to-back SP’s off the board with Burnes. He is in the final year of his rookie contract and should be extended by the Phillies as soon as possible. He is one of 10ish workhorses in the big leagues as he has gone 160+ innings each of the last three seasons including a 200 inning campaign in 2022. It’ll be curious to see what happens with Burnes as the Brewers are somewhat in the middle of a shuffle with their roster and don’t seem interested in keeping Burnes long-term at the figures he is requesting. The big story last offseason was them berating him in the arbitration case to figure out his salary for the 2023 season. I wouldn’t be surprised if an arbiter controls the fate of Burnes’ bank account again this offseason. It’s a great pick for the Phillies here. You can’t pass him up in case of a pitcher run after Gallen went off the board.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 16:46:02 GMT -5
1.24 - Ozzie Albies - Arizona Diamondbacks
Another Brave in the first round. Ozzie has been so consistent for years and the power he provides from the second base position is above and beyond some of the best in the league. He is still signed at 7M for the next four years so that is a bargain without a doubt. The DBacks GM has been so solid in every league so it’s not shocking that he didn’t let Albies get past him here. He will find the pitching somewhere in the middle rounds and by round 20 everyone will look up and wonder how he got the arms that he did. Sneaky good pick for the DBacks here.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 16:49:21 GMT -5
1.25 - Jackson Chourio - Detroit Tigers
And there he goes. The 8-year/82M man is off the board at #25 in the first round. He hasn’t played in the big leagues yet, but will be a Tiger for the long-term if they so wish. It’s hard to know what to expect out of Chourio with the limited number of at-bats above the Double-A level, but almost everyone has him at the top of the prospect rankings. With the signing, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t on the Brewers Opening Day roster no matter what he does production wise in Spring Training. This is definitely a risk for the Tigers, but one that could pay off big time with them having the lowest salary cap. It’s a good pick, even with the risk of the unknown.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 16:52:24 GMT -5
1.26 - Wyatt Langford - Pittsburgh Pirates
Back-to-back prospects off the board, this one a 2023 draft pick in Wyatt Langford that found himself in Triple-A at the end last year. He has all of the tools and should hit for major power in the big leagues, but how quickly does he make it to the bigs? Some are saying the 2024 year should be the expectation and I don’t blame them. The Rangers are coming off a World Series title and have a few holes to fill offensively with the loss of Garver and Grossman. The Pirates have the second largest payroll to spend, but they go young right out of the gate and get a player that could be a game changer for them for years.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 16:56:10 GMT -5
1.27 - Eury Perez - San Diego Padres
This is a great pick for the Padres this late in the first round. He grabs a starting pitcher that will be the ace of the Marlins staff that made the playoffs a year ago. He will be expected to take the roll of Sandy Alcantara who will miss the entire 2024 season due to elbow surgery. He is a high strikeout guy that will just need to command all of the power he has a little bit more. He lets some innings get away from him at times and that kills his ability to go deep in games, but if he can figure that out, he is a top tier arm in the majors. The Padres start with a top-end arm here at the end of the first round. He will get another pick quickly on the turn to pair with Perez.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 17:00:03 GMT -5
1.28 - Logan Webb - Cincinnati Reds
This late in the first round and getting almost back-to-back picks it’s always a tough spot to be in. You get two picks quick but then have to wait another forever to get another and the runs could put you behind in a hurry. The Reds got their ace in Logan Webb who is signed long-term on a good deal. Webb pitches in a pitcher-friendly park and was the ultimate arm in this format last year. He collected 24 quality starts in 33 appearances tallying 216 innings, including two complete games. This is a great pick for the Reds as they are able to grab Webb at 28, one of the top 10 arms based on ability and contract.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tampa Bay Rays - Commish on Jan 6, 2024 17:05:59 GMT -5
1.29 - Corey Seager - Chicago White Sox
The 2x World Series MVP is coming off the best offensive season of his career. 42 doubles and 33 home runs are both career highs for Seager and he had his best average of his career as well. He will sit at the top of one of the best offenses in the game again this season, but the price tag probably scared a few teams away from him. He is locked up long term, but the price isn’t cheap to keep Seager. Does he repeat his 2022? Doubtful. But if it’s anywhere close he is worth the price. The White Sox get their shortstop for the future, the sixth shortstop taken in the first round. A great pick for the White Sox to build off of.
|
|
